Wednesday, July 7, 2010

The new urbanism a myth?

Joel Kotkin calls the much-heralded back-to-city migration a "myth" in The Wall Street Journal:

"Pundits, planners and urban visionaries—citing everything from changing demographics, soaring energy prices, the rise of the so-called "creative class," and the need to battle global warming—have been predicting for years that America's love affair with the suburbs will soon be over. Their voices have grown louder since the onset of the housing crisis. Suburban neighborhoods, as the Atlantic magazine put it in March 2008, would morph into "the new slums" as people trek back to dense urban spaces.

But the great migration back to the city hasn't occurred. Over the past decade the percentage of Americans living in suburbs and single-family homes has increased. Meanwhile, demographer Wendell Cox's analysis of census figures show that a much-celebrated rise in the percentage of multifamily housing peaked at 40% of all new housing permits in 2008, and it has since fallen to below 20% of the total, slightly lower than in 2000...." Column

I am posting this column because the column makes some points we should keep in mind as we bet more and more of Jackson's future on downtown development. I don't think this column necessarily applies to Jackson as there were not that many residential units downtown in the first place. There are several projects on the board right now but I don't see them outstripping the demand and make no mistake, there is some demand for downtown living. After these projects are completed, mixed-used development in the Jackson metro area is going to be slow for some time as there are simply too many projects withering on the vine: Lost Rabbit, Livingston, Harborwalk, Mandalay, and others. Most of them are in Madison County where the boom has obviously fizzled and downtown offers a unique place to live that is not suffering from an oversupply of housing. As long as Downtown avoids the "build it and they will come, market be damned" mentality, it will be fine.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

Not sure I'd call the downtown projects "New Urbanism". Lost Rabbit, Livingston Township, etc. are much better examples.

Anonymous said...

I just don't go downtown. I wish it were more family friendly, not so focused on night life and "new urbanism." Just not enough activities that are centered around families.

Anonymous said...

I am interested to hear what people have to say about the school system. I would be more than willing to move back to Jackson and even possibly downtown. However, I would be forced to send my children to private schools, which is a huge expense. 15 years or so ago, it was almost understood that you sent your kids to private schools. However, now with the Madison County School system booming as well as Rankin and Clinton, most middle income families choose to remain in the burbs because of the schools.

Anonymous said...

Art museum, planetarium, Old State Capitol, Smith Park, etc. are all pretty family friendly. Belhaven and Fondren are close and offer lots of family activities.

KaptKangaroo said...

Schools are a major issue as well.

As to Art Museum (it changes too slowly), Capital (nice to visit every couple years or so), parks (I'll pass)...Belhaven and Fondren are close, but are geared towards young adults, not necessarily families.

There is no robust change that the "creative class" has brought to any place downtown. It is so fragmented and the driving forces appear focused on criticizing rather than really changing anything through private "creative" investment.

This is certainly an interesting discussion.

Anonymous said...

I see downtown being more attractive to young and/or single people. Just because it might not be a magnet for raising families doesn't mean there isn't a lot of untapped potential.

Anonymous said...

tried to find something creative and New to do in Jackson this weekend and other than bars and old art, not a thing for me to do. Jackson website sucks, out of date an does not promote the city!

Anonymous said...

I don't think Madison County's growth has "fizzled", as you say. It has suffered, like many other places in the country, from financing being cut off abruptly due to the markets tanking. It will be ok in time. Most of the projects that have slowed down are quality projects. The ones that suffer the most probably should never have been built anyway.
I think some of the people who live in Madison, Rankin or elsewhere outside Jackson would consider moving to Jackson if the safety and education of their family could be assured. If they knew for certain it was a priority in the current, past or future administrations. That seems far from the case.

Anonymous said...

Belhaven is a family neighborhood. Stop by Laurel Street Park sometime.

Anonymous said...

New Urbanism as someone stated does not apply to downtown Jackson.

The word you are looking for is gentrification, which for some reason is avoided like the plague in the south.

Anonymous said...

I would agree with the gentrification comment.

Curt Crowley said...

Gentrification? Exactly what lower income residents have been displaced by any development in downtown Jackson?

KaptKangaroo said...

Gentrification in the fact that a majority of real estate owners (prime and "D" real estate) are reaching or are post gentrified. Not a criticism, its just the reality of a city where the wealth was made and then, well, it kinda' got old. They are still the wealthy land owners (or inheritors); if I am incorrect, please give me examples. The lower income issue is a result of a lot of folks in the 80s - early 90s trying to make money of urban rental real estate. The land/houses fell in to disrepair the first recession in '92 then with the bottom falling out since the turn of the century, they have been abandoning real estate DT. The two havens Belhaven and Fondren only survived because they fell back and that is where they just landed. While the Boomer sellout in starting in '93 was slow, this latest recession has seen folks selling to get out, and the properties are sitting, rotting, making the communities fall further. Gentrification at its finest; no reinvestment in these properties, just getting older.

I've probably over-simplified my observation, but I've seen it in more towns than I can count...Detroit (never get off the highway), Atlanta (although they did figure it out), DT LA (ever been to Watts?), Seattle (another example of figuring it out), Philadelphia (good Lord no one ever thought it could get worse)....the list is long.

KaptKangaroo said...

Urban development demands a mixture of "ecomonic strata" coming together. The fact that Jackson has accepted its image as a bastion of low-income supported and protected by a creative class does nothing to support the other end of the strata that is needed to invigorate development. The issue really is the "middle class" "creative class" that doesn't want to lose power over their collective belief that they know better, especially in the face of big bad investors. They kinda' like being the wealthiest folks downtown.

KaptKangaroo said...

Addendum to my earlier kudos to Atlanta and Seattle...they just moved south to South Atlanta and Tacoma respectively. Didn't solve the problem, they displaced those who couldn't afford urbanism.

Anonymous said...

Kaptain, I think you might have gentrification mixed up with geriatric.

KaptKangaroo said...

I don't think so. But good try.

KaptKangaroo said...

You might have me on the point of businesses are supposed to move back into depressed areas; steadfast holding to gentrification. The difference in Jackson is they didn't reinvest, they left. They left in droves. They continue to leave. Go look at Highland Village. It is a shame in my mind. It looks like Belhaven and Fondren (albeit Fondren has stuggled). They are all falling back and coming together to protect themselves from the outer threat of poverty, gentrification (albeit, the cycle is not complete), and crime. I asked for examples, I'm not being authoritative on this issue, I'm curious, because I was in Atlanta when the Renaissance happened and the suburbs dropped...same for Seattle. When I said this is an interesting discussion, I mean it. I have my own reasons for landing here. I wonder what in the world would ever keep me here. Give me a reason.

Anonymous said...

Schools are the big problem, but there are very good private schools for those with the means. And,as good as the Madison schools may be, once high school hits, a good number still elect private schools and then worry about their children on the road.

Increasing traffic issues to, from and in the 'burbs is Jackson's biggest asset.

Those who live in Madison but work in Jackson discover they add at least an hour to their work day. This is an hour not spent with family. Also, once they get home, they are not inclined to " go back out" after fighting traffic.

In town, a quick errand for one item is an easy 15 minute run. In Madison, it's 30-45 min.

In town,home delivery is more easily available including for drugs. Emergency rooms are closer, one serious emergency where you're praying all the way to the hospital will cause one to " rethink".

Living in Jackson just simply gives someone whose business is in town more personal time. Convenience is still a huge asset.

Those downtown professional offices that move to Madison figure out that more time is taken for lunch and they are going back downtown frequently to conduct business. If they bother to look, they often find a loss in productivity.

Jackson night life may not be " all that" but pray tell please describe Madison's exciting night life. Jackson does have plays and concerts and events that come to town. KF posts many of the " night life" activities at the Auditorium that are ongoing.

Teen and college age " hang outs" are all in Jackson.

And, given KFs posts, what was true 30 years ago in Madison before we moved back to town is still true...the local government doesn't really compare that favorably when you actually figure out how it really functions. Mayor Mary WAS the " reform" candidate back then!

KaptKangaroo said...

Well put 8:55. All points well taken.

Anonymous said...

I'm responding to 8:55am as a lawyer living and practicing in Madison County. I'm a big advocate of the communities getting along. Madison is painted as evil and Jackson is referred to as dangerous and in decline. I don't think either description is accurate. I consider the two places like church denominations - you get in where you fit in. I moved here from somewhere else. My job is on the Parkway, my church is in Madison, and generally most of what I need can be found there.

As your priorities change, so might your living needs. Right now the best fit for my family is Madison County. That may change based on jobs or education.

My response:

Schools are the big problem, but there are very good private schools for those with the means. And,as good as the Madison schools may be, once high school hits, a good number still elect private schools and then worry about their children on the road.

I suspect this is true.

Increasing traffic issues to, from and in the 'burbs is Jackson's biggest asset.

True. Anytime somebody buys in your town (gas/food) and believes it would be more convenient to live there, this is a good thing for your town.

Those who live in Madison but work in Jackson discover they add at least an hour to their work day. This is an hour not spent with family. Also, once they get home, they are not inclined to " go back out" after fighting traffic.

True, but going back out to many adults is dinner with the children, not getting drunk and pissing on our feet. Dinner with the kids can be down the street at a local restaurant.

In town, a quick errand for one item is an easy 15 minute run. In Madison, it's 30-45 min.

I disagree. Maybe if you live in Lake Caroline. Or during rush hour.

In town,home delivery is more easily available including for drugs. Emergency rooms are closer, one serious emergency where you're praying all the way to the hospital will cause one to " rethink".

You must work for St. Dominic. That is there argument against HMA. Truth is that people in Madison have much more access to care than most of the State. This has some merit, but not as much as the Sister at the big hospital wants us to believe. And I have made that emergency trip with a child short of breath. Sure, I wanted those 7 extra minutes, but that is a trade off we choose.

Living in Jackson just simply gives someone whose business is in town more personal time. Convenience is still a huge asset.

Yes, but work and live on the Parkway and you will get spoiled by those 3 minute commutes.

Jackson night life may not be " all that" but pray tell please describe Madison's exciting night life. Jackson does have plays and concerts and events that come to town. KF posts many of the " night life" activities at the Auditorium that are ongoing.

Again, it depends on the entertainment you want. I wouldn't encourage a single, 23 male to move in my neighborhood in Madison. However, a young married couple with children will have ample family oriented entertainment. And they can hire a babysitter when they want to head downtown. No law against that, but driving is an issue. As far as plays and concerts (I'm thinking symphony and the coliseum), you are right, Jackson has the monopoly. But the 15 minutes I drive to those events doesn't kill me. And those events are a rare event for professionals with young children.

Anonymous said...

cont...

Teen and college age " hang outs" are all in Jackson.

College hangouts are in Jackson because of the nightlife previously mentioned and the fact you have three campuses and Hinds not too far away. I don't know much about teen hangouts because my children are not that old. I don't particularly want college kids hanging out in Madison, so that isn't a big deal to me personally.

Those downtown professional offices that move to Madison figure out that more time is taken for lunch and they are going back downtown frequently to conduct business. If they bother to look, they often find a loss in productivity.

I disagree. Now that the Parkway has plenty of restaurants, and Lake Harbour and Old Canton have places to eat, lunch isn't that much more of a time drain. Insofar as going downtown, the only reason I go downtown is to file court documents, because Hinds County is so far behind Madison with online filing.(this applies for Rankin too, because their online services are pitiful). Also, email has cut down on hand deliveries.

And, given KFs posts, what was true 30 years ago in Madison before we moved back to town is still true...the local government doesn't really compare that favorably when you actually figure out how it really functions. Mayor Mary WAS the " reform" candidate back then!

Six in one hand, half a dozen in the other. Whatever you can stomach. Neither appeal to me.

Anonymous said...

12:43 We have no meaningful disagreement.
It does depend on where you live in Madison and what your access artery is like and the time of day.
Distance and time become unrelated. I can get to businesses I frequent at the Madison exit faster than I can get to businesses I frequent on Lake Harbor which is FAR closer in miles.
It does depend on your life style preferences and priorities.

And, we definitely agree attacking Madison or Jackson is silly and those who do, are just curmudgeons. Both areas have pluses and minuses and we get to choose what matters to us.

I'm simply trying to point out the advantages of residential urban living and you, of suburban living. And, I think we are both able to see there are trade offs.

Yes, there are more restaurants and more shopping. But have you tracked the changes in your staffs' lunch time and " errand" behavior ( personal and office related)? You should look to see if the time away from the office during the work day has increased. I'll bet you find you are losing about 20 work hours a year per staff employee at a minimum...IF you are lucky.

BUT, the investment value and comfort of a new building that your firm owns can be more important as a partner or one who hopes to be. The improved layout can increase productivity so that MAY make up for those lost hours.

I've no affliation with any hospital, but I did have medical emergencies while living in Madison and even speeding, couldn't duplicate your time from my residence. And, I can see a fire hydrant and the fire and rescue is a couple of blocks away.

There's more yazoo clay and more crime generally in Jackson ( though my only crime victim experience was in my neighborhood Madison) , but to ME, that's preferable than living in a tornado alley like I did in Madison. Seeing and hearing one touch down in a neighbor nearby affected MY sense of security. I can secure my home from crime, but not from a tornado.

But, if young and healthy and in a new house, the risks and risk perceptions are different.

And, I think that is the point we are both making. There is a market for both areas. One size doesn't fit all.

The brand of shoes that fits my feet comfortably might hurt your feet. We can respect each other's right to pick out our own shoes. But, we seem to no longer, in this country, respect the right of our fellow citizens to make individual choices or have priorities different from our own. Somehow, we've come to see that as a personal criticism of OUR choice.

This penchant to argue over such nonsense in a nation build on the concept of individual freedom, including the right to be wrong ( as far as I'm concerned), is irritating me to no end. But , a relief to have a rational exchange with you 12:53

Anonymous said...

12:43 We have no meaningful disagreement.
It does depend on where you live in Madison and what your access artery is like and the time of day.
Distance and time become unrelated. I can get to businesses I frequent at the Madison exit faster than I can get to businesses I frequent on Lake Harbor which is FAR closer in miles.
It does depend on your life style preferences and priorities.

And, we definitely agree attacking Madison or Jackson is silly and those who do, are just curmudgeons. Both areas have pluses and minuses and we get to choose what matters to us.

I'm simply trying to point out the advantages of residential urban living and you, of suburban living. And, I think we are both able to see there are trade offs.

Yes, there are more restaurants and more shopping. But have you tracked the changes in your staffs' lunch time and " errand" behavior ( personal and office related)? You should look to see if the time away from the office during the work day has increased. I'll bet you find you are losing about 20 work hours a year per staff employee at a minimum...IF you are lucky.

BUT, the investment value and comfort of a new building that your firm owns can be more important as a partner or one who hopes to be. The improved layout can increase productivity so that MAY make up for those lost hours.

I've no affliation with any hospital, but I did have medical emergencies while living in Madison and even speeding, couldn't duplicate your time from my residence. And, I can see a fire hydrant and the fire and rescue is a couple of blocks away.

There's more yazoo clay and more crime generally in Jackson ( though my only crime victim experience was in my neighborhood Madison) , but to ME, that's preferable than living in a tornado alley like I did in Madison. Seeing and hearing one touch down in a neighbor nearby affected MY sense of security. I can secure my home from crime, but not from a tornado.

But, if young and healthy and in a new house, the risks and risk perceptions are different.

And, I think that is the point we are both making. There is a market for both areas. One size doesn't fit all.

The brand of shoes that fits my feet comfortably might hurt your feet. We can respect each other's right to pick out our own shoes. But, we seem to no longer, in this country, respect the right of our fellow citizens to make individual choices or have priorities different from our own. Somehow, we've come to see that as a personal criticism of OUR choice.

This penchant to argue over such nonsense in a nation build on the concept of individual freedom, including the right to be wrong ( as far as I'm concerned), is irritating me to no end. But , a relief to have a rational exchange with you 12:53

Anonymous said...

When gas goes back up to $4.00 per gallon again (which it will the day after Israel attacks Iran and Iran retaliates by attacking anything that floats in the Strait of Hormuz), downtown living will become unbelievably attractive.



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If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

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